By Dick Morris
Natural disasters usually follow the same political trajectory: First
the incumbent experiences a bounce as he tours the impacted area, shows
his concern, and pledges help to his beleaguered constituents. But then
reality sets in and the shortages, delays, mishaps, deaths, and
devastation becomes apparent and people turn against the incumbent.
George W. Bush had his Katrina.
And now Barack Obama has his Sandy.
Last week, Obama asserted a kind of ownership of the storm by touring
New Jersey in the now infamous embrace of Republican stalwart Governor
Chris Christie. Now that we are all appalled by the lack of food, gas,
water, heat, and the basic essentials of life throughout the storm zone,
Obama’s government doesn’t look so good anymore.
Why didn’t FEMA stockpile food, water, and gasoline? We had a week’s
notice to prepare for Sandy.
There was no shortage of time. Did the
government not realize that people needed to eat, drink, and drive?
All throughout America, we are asking these questions of our television sets as we watch the evolving story of human misery.
Meanwhile, Obama has resumed the campaign trail, pounding the
opposition in the same relentless and partisan style which he used
before the storm. When Obama said that voting was “the best revenge,” he
threw away whatever presidentiality he displayed in touring storm
damage earlier in the week.
As he entered the last week before the Congressional election of
1994, President Clinton returned to the U.S. after having presided over
the signing of a peace treaty between Israel and Jordan. He called me on
his return and asked where he should campaign? Which incumbent
Democrats should he try to help get re-elected?
I told him he should not campaign for any of them.
“No, you don’t understand,” he explained. I just came back from the
Middle East and my ratings are up ten points. Before, I would have hurt
the candidates I campaigned for, but not now. Now I can help them.”
“Your ratings are up because your trip hyped your presidentiality.
Now, if you start campaigning, you’ll look like a politician and your
ratings will come down again. You’ll end up doing more harm than good to
those you are trying to help.”
He disregarded the advice and lost both houses of Congress in the elections.
Now Obama is making the same mistake. By campaigning, particularly by
using the same harsh partisan rhetoric which has characterized his
campaign, Obama is dragging down his ratings and with it his chances of
victory.
Particularly when we see the juxtaposition of the mounting disaster
in New York and New Jersey and the President out on the campaign trail
attacking his opponents, we realize that Obama is a candidate before he
is president, more worried about his second term than the welfare of his
constituents.
In yesterday’s polling numbers, I saw a rise in Obama’s ratings and
warned that the race was far from over. Now, we see him throwing it all
away and resuming his crash into a single term presidency.
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Showing posts with label Dick Morris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dick Morris. Show all posts
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Friday, November 2, 2012
In The Last Few Hours…Sudden Danger Signs In Polling
By Dick Morris
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan.
More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks.
But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Link:
Related:
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan.
More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks.
But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Link:
Related:
Gallup Shows Big Party Shift – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
By Dick Morris on November 2, 2012
Dear Friend,
In this video commentary, I discuss some important poll findings from Gallup that is a game changer for the election. Tune in!
Link:
Dear Friend,
In this video commentary, I discuss some important poll findings from Gallup that is a game changer for the election. Tune in!
Link:
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