(Erie County Pennsylvania Republican Party) Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released
today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376
likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other
candidates.
In the same sample Republican Tom Smith leads Senator Casey by two
percentage points in the race for the United States Senate seat from
Pennsylvania. Smith is at 48% to Casey’s 46% according to this poll.
Diana Irey Vaughan (R) is tied with McCord at 45% each, David
Freed(R) trails Kane by 45% to 47% and Maher(R) leads DePasuale 45% to
44%.
This poll shows the highly competitive nature of all statewide races
where there are no highly favored candidates and it also reveals that
Pennsylvania is definitely in play for both the presidential and
senatorial races which will determine control of the direction of this
nation between two differing visions on energy independence, education,
international trade, balancing the budget and support for small
businesses.
Link:
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Showing posts with label polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polling. Show all posts
Friday, November 2, 2012
In The Last Few Hours…Sudden Danger Signs In Polling
By Dick Morris
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan.
More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks.
But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Link:
Related:
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan.
More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks.
But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
Link:
Related:
Gallup Shows Big Party Shift – Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert!
By Dick Morris on November 2, 2012
Dear Friend,
In this video commentary, I discuss some important poll findings from Gallup that is a game changer for the election. Tune in!
Link:
Dear Friend,
In this video commentary, I discuss some important poll findings from Gallup that is a game changer for the election. Tune in!
Link:
Friday, October 24, 2008
Most accurate pollster from 2004 race: McCain now leading among Catholics
"McCain has also gone from an 11-point deļ¬cit to a 9-point lead among Catholics, with only days remaining before the November 4 election.
The heated debate around abortion and the stepping up of bishops' statements on the incompatibility of pro-choice positions with Catholic doctrine is believed to be one of the possible reasons for the Republican candidate's surge among Catholics..."
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