By Dick Morris
As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute
changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a
4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose
from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest
Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the
storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at
48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but
on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.We have also seem slippage for
Romney in Michigan.
More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the
election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the
election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s
negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing
very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of
a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious
coverup of the Libyan attacks.
But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by
actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief.
And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up
promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile
(figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor
Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey
might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president
deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with
the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect
Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up
our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against
the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful
than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must
be headed.
Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!
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