Sunday, February 21, 2016

Post South Carolina Results – “The Looming Inferno”…

From Sundance at The Last Refuge:

trump smile 3Be of good cheer and enjoy the removal of one-half of the globalists 2016 objectives; indeed a difficult Rubicon has been successfully traversed.  However, do not be naïve in thinking one significant battle means the war has been won.

The bloodiest battle still lays ahead.

♦ Jeb Bush has been forced out of the race.  It cannot be overstated how significant this victory is in the grand scheme of things.  The foundational block, upon which the entire road-map was built, has been removed.  However, the GOPe engineers will now shift attention to a scorched earth campaign to benefit their retention of power.

We would all be wise to remember in 2014 Chris McDaniels actually defeated Thad Cochran in the first GOP Mississippi primary.  It was only after their initial defeat the GOPe decided to destroy anything that stood in their way – again, the retention of power was the ultimate motivator.

We can now expect those same DC influences, including the entire camp that supported Jeb Bush, the old guard, to work diligently (albeit under darkened cover) to assist Hillary Clinton, and destroy anything that would interrupt their grip on power.

Yes, the GOPe would rather lose to Hillary and retain their place at the trough than to see entry into their cloistered club by the Vulgarian Donald Trump.

shameful seven 1

That inevitable and predictable result was/is part of the original problem.

The full weight of the GOPe apparatus, Wall Street, the U.S. CoC, K-Street and the affiliated professional political class will now work hand-in-hand with the Democrats and left-wing media to destroy that which threatens them; namely Donald J Trump.  Attacks in all forms are only going to get worse from here on out.

Trump refusing to thank the Bush Clan upon exit was simply recognition of his awareness of what’s to come.  Trump, and the close circle around him, are well aware of what happens next….. They simply have to be.

♦ “Ceilings” – There will be much media obfuscation around Trump having ceilings, or limits to his appeal.  These necessarily promoted memes and narratives will have to be pushed to provide distraction and gaslight those voters with common sense.

In reality election results are ceilings themselves, and while they may proclaim Trump has a 35% +/- ceiling, the reality is yesterday Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz had ceilings around the 22% range.  Election results are ceilings.  Ceilings move along with the thinning out of campaign contestants.
FACT – As long as Trump’s “Ceiling” is higher than his competition he will continue to win, and there’s nothing on the visible horizon to indicate he will lose.  Talk of “ceilings” is merely obfuscation and denial of reality.

♦ John Kasich – Remember, Kasich will not even be competitive in most of the upcoming races.  Nor is Kasich on all of the upcoming state’s ballots.  So why does he stay in?  He is a loyal soldier for the Old Guard.  He still has a role to play, an agenda to deliver and promises to keep.

♦ Ted Cruz – Ted’s loss yesterday (as described here), showcases what we have outlined for a long time.  Team Cruz does not carry a pathway to a successful nomination. Period.  If Cruz cannot win a single county in 75% evangelical voter friendly South Carolina, where exactly can he win?

SEC primary states or not, Ted Cruz’s last and only firewall before an embarrassing, albeit lucrative, exit is Texas.  If Cruz doesn’t win Texas, he’s done.  But he needs to keep talking like it’s possible in order for the supporters to hit the donation buttons on the increasingly urgent and desperate emails.

Team Cruz talking points will center around beating Trump by a.) confronting Trump directly, or, b)  taking down Marco Rubio.  Except Cruz faces a reality problem.  Taking support from Rubio only benefits Trump, not Cruz.

♦ Marco Rubio – We have continually referenced readers to weigh only polling that is not agenda driven polling.  Meaning polling results which are not driven by insiders in the professional political game.  You can see from last night’s results the NBC/WSJ poll was insufferably wrong (derived from a PR firm).  So too was the Fox Poll, and almost all of the 48 hour polls prior to the actual voting in South Carolina.

However, in the non-agenda polling, done by actual political scientists without a financial stake in the outcome, you see a key point repeating over the past several months.  If you take down Marco Rubio, Donald Trump’s numbers increase but not Ted Cruz.

The Southern Political Poll is a great representative example – SEE HERE.

south carolina poll Fox5

Horse race #1 = first choice, Horse race #2 = second choice.

Only Donald Trump holds more than 50% when combining first and second preference in objective polling stats (again, agenda polls are useless for this analysis).

It is conversely true that Rubio would benefit from a Trump downfall or exit.  However, it is also true that any benefit therein to Cruz would be minimal.  Cruz’s base voters are the purest of ideological voters, as a consequence moderates do not traverse easily into that camp – even if their favorite issues are represented within it.

As we previously shared, in a three man race with Trump, Rubio and Cruz a generally admitted outcome would be:
  • Trump 45-50%  (America-First Populists, blue collar and Reagan Dems, Blue dogs)
  • Rubio 25-30% (Mainstream republicans, white collar, moderate GOPe)
  • Cruz 20-25%  (Right-Wing, Staunch Faith-Value voters, Evangelicals)
We have not had an “America-First” (center-right) candidate for a long time.  That is the new paradigm everyone is struggling to define.  And when you combine that broad-based coalition it takes all the positional oxygen from the GOPe and far right.

America-first immigration policies; strong border security; Pro U.S. worker trade-policies; Main Street (not Wall Street) American worker interests; Local education (not common core); Strong national defense, but common sense non-intervention.  All policies dominated by Donald J Trump.

One of the historic truisms in the past several election cycles is the “Cruz Coalition”, as currently assembled, is the first to stay home when their candidate doesn’t win.  The socially-minded voter will never vote for a populist fiscal conservative/socially moderate candidate.  Cruz voters, and their advocates, are emotionally driven by social issues. Hence they yell a lot (See Mark Levin) and only respond well to others who are inside their echo-chamber... (continued)


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